Watch the simple model

When water freezes into ice or snow, it becomes very reflective, causing it to absorb less energy, causing more cooling. As ice or vapor turns into water, it becomes an almost perfect blackbody, absorbing more heat, causing more warming. This positive feedback makes the freeze/thaw cycle the dominant weather driver on earth. We observe it daily at the equator wherever mountains stick up high enough. We observe it annually as the poles are alternately stuck into shadow and 24-hour daylight.
The annual freeze-thaw cycle will dominate earth's weather as long as there is polar ice.
Positive feedback makes the freeze-thaw boundary remarkably distinct, and much easier to track over the long term than temperatures.
The long-term trend for these cycles is progressive thawing, toward both altitude and the poles. It should not result in the arctic becoming ice-free in summer before the next century but growing seasons, frost-free days, and permafrost melting are all progressing northward. Vertical thawing is eliminating snowpack and glaciers worldwide.
Our climate prediction from the simple model and its behavior is:

More of the same, with a warming trend.